According to the Public Policy Institute of California, California’s declining enrollment numbers may force many school districts to follow in the footsteps of the San Francisco Unified School District (SFUSD), which recently announced potential school closures due to budget deficits linked to years of falling enrollment.
The San Francisco Chronicle notes that the drop in student enrollment within SFUSD is a significant concern, but it’s not the only district in California experiencing a sharp decline. Over the past decade, immigration decline and reduced birth rates have caused enrollment to trend downward across various districts. The California Department of Finance predicts that public schools in the state could lose over 700,000 students in the next ten years.
The Public Policy Institute of California found that among the public schools where student numbers have drastically decreased over the last decade, only about one-third have opted for closure so far. However, with continuous drops in enrollment, it’s likely that more districts will take steps similar to those of SFUSD.
Julien Lafortune, a researcher at the institute, stated, “In some respects, keeping schools open during economic hardship doesn’t make sense. If student enrollment is less than half or even a third of the school’s capacity but the school still incurs fixed operational costs, the cost per student becomes exceedingly high. That’s when tough decisions have to be made.”
The Chronicle points out that during the early years of the COVID-19 pandemic, many parents chose to keep their children out of preschool or opted for homeschooling, which accelerated the drop in public school enrollment. However, the continued decline seems to stem from more enduring factors, such as decreasing immigration and birth rates. California has seen a net population loss for several decades, with annual births significantly lower compared to the 1990s and 2000s.
Data from the California Department of Finance shows that the decline in enrollment within San Francisco public schools has been relatively mild, dropping about 3% from 2013 to 2023, compared to an 8% decrease in the Bay Area as a whole and a 6% decrease statewide. However, projections indicate that the student population in San Francisco will shrink from 56,500 in 2023 to 47,300 by 2033, representing a 16% drop, which exceeds the 12% state average but is lower than the nearly 20% decline expected in the Greater Los Angeles area.
On a more optimistic note, Lafortune pointed out that the introduction of transitional kindergarten in California has broadened the age range for enrollment, helping to mitigate further declines in student numbers. Without this initiative, the drop in public school enrollment could have been even steeper.
According to the Public Policy Institute, between 2012 and 2021, nearly 700 of California’s approximately 10,000 public schools closed, affecting around 167,000 students, most of whom attended schools with a higher proportion of low-income and non-native English-speaking students.
