Moldova has narrowly voted in favor of EU membership by just 13,000 votes following a high-stakes referendum marred by allegations of Russian interference. This pivotal moment, which coincided with a presidential election, underscores the ongoing tug-of-war between Russia and the West over Moldova, a nation of 2.5 million located in Eastern Europe.
The referendum, which asked voters whether to enshrine a pathway to EU membership in the constitution, yielded a slim victory for the pro-EU camp, with 50.46% of nearly 1.5 million ballots cast supporting the initiative, according to the Central Electoral Commission. This narrow result represents a significant win for pro-Western President Maia Sandu, who faced potential political fallout.
Sandu led the first round of the presidential election with 42% of the vote and is set to compete against Alexandr Stoianoglo, a former prosecutor backed by the pro-Russian Socialists, in the upcoming runoff. In her remarks post-election, Sandu declared, “Moldova has won the first difficult battle in the push to join the European Union,” while also condemning “foreign forces” for attempting to undermine the electoral process, which she characterized as “an attack on Moldovan sovereignty.”
This referendum was a crucial test for Sandu’s pro-European agenda. While the result allows for a constitutional clause defining EU accession as a national goal, experts warn that the path to EU membership remains long and fraught with challenges. Sandu’s supporters in Brussels are likely to be disheartened by the close result, especially considering pre-election surveys had suggested a more favorable outlook for her policies.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Moldova applied to join the EU, and began negotiations in June, though skepticism persists regarding its ability to implement necessary reforms. Observers caution that a weakened Sandu may face a formidable challenge from the united pro-Moscow opposition in the forthcoming second round of the presidential election.
Preliminary reports indicated that Moldovans voting from abroad largely supported the referendum, providing a last-minute boost for the pro-EU campaign, despite a majority of domestic ballots appearing to oppose it. A Western diplomat remarked, “Sandu had hoped for a strong mandate for EU integration, but the narrow outcome raises significant questions about the level of support for her policies.”
Moldovan authorities alleged that Russia and its proxies orchestrated a hybrid war to destabilize the nation and derail its EU aspirations. Sandu accused these “foreign forces” of attempting to buy votes in what she described as “an unprecedented scale” of fraud.
EU officials echoed these concerns, asserting that Moldova faced unprecedented intimidation and interference ahead of the vote. The fugitive pro-Russian businessman Ilan Shor has been particularly implicated in destabilizing efforts, accused of running a vote-buying scheme from Moscow.
The impact of disinformation campaigns was also spotlighted by analysts, highlighting a deep division in Moldovan public opinion regarding EU integration. Lithuania’s Foreign Minister commended Moldovans for choosing a European future, despite external pressures.
In response, Russian officials have questioned the legitimacy of the referendum outcome, suggesting it reflects a lack of support for President Sandu’s policies. As Moldova navigates this complex political landscape, the results contribute to a broader trend of shifting allegiances in the region, as neighboring Georgia prepares for its own critical elections in the near future.
