Imagine being in the shoes of Vladimir Putin right now. The West has labeled you a pariah due to the invasion of Ukraine, and punitive sanctions are striving to sever your nation’s economy from the global market. To add to the pressure, there’s even an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court hanging over you.
What could you do to demonstrate that these pressures aren’t effective? Host a summit.
This week, in Kazan, Russia, President Putin is set to welcome over 20 heads of state at the Brics summit, which focuses on emerging economies. Among the attendees are influential leaders like China’s Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. The Kremlin has dubbed this gathering one of the “largest-scale foreign policy events ever” to take place in Russia.
Chris Weafer, founding partner of the consultancy firm Macro-Advisory, explains this move: “The clear message is that attempts to isolate Russia have failed. This summit serves as significant proof from the Kremlin that Russia can withstand the sanctions imposed on it. Although there are evident cracks beneath the surface, on a geopolitical front, Russia has secured a network of partners.”
So, who exactly are Russia’s allies? The BRICS nations—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—serve as a counterbalance to the Western-led world and have recently expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. Additionally, Saudi Arabia has been invited to join the group.
Together, BRICS nations represent 45% of the global population, with their combined economies exceeding $28.5 trillion, which accounts for approximately 28% of the global economy.
As the summit unfolds in Kazan, Russian officials note that a further 30 countries are expressing interest in joining BRICS or seeking closer ties with the organization. Much of the discussion is anticipated to focus on BRICS portraying itself as the “global majority.”
However, aside from giving Vladimir Putin a platform on the geopolitical stage, what are the tangible outcomes of the summit? Eager to alleviate the impacts of Western sanctions, Putin will likely push for BRICS members to consider an alternative to the dollar for international transactions. Weafer asserts, “Many of the challenges facing Russia’s economy are linked to cross-border trade and payments, fundamentally tied to the dominance of the U.S. dollar. Russia’s main interest lies in diminishing the dollar’s supremacy. It is looking for BRICS nations to develop an alternative trade mechanism and a cross-border settlement system that operates outside of the dollar, euro, or any G7 currencies. This way, the significance of sanctions could be greatly reduced.”
Nevertheless, critics highlight the divisions within BRICS. Jim O’Neill, former Chief Economist of Goldman Sachs, remarks, “The term ‘likeminded’ certainly doesn’t apply to the current membership structure.” He continues, “It’s almost fortunate for the West that China and India often fail to find common ground. If these two powers truly cooperated, BRICS could wield considerable influence.”
O’Neill was the one who coined the acronym “BRIC” for the four emerging economies he believed should be integrated into global policymaking at the start of the 21st century. The acronym has since evolved into BRICS, expanding its membership to include South Africa and fostering efforts to challenge G7 dominance.
Disparities don’t just surface between India and China; there’s also tension between Egypt and Ethiopia, as well as long-standing rivalries between Iran and Saudi Arabia. O’Neill expresses skepticism about the likelihood of BRICS members reaching substantial agreements: “The idea that they are all going to fundamentally agree on something significant is frankly unrealistic.”
While Russia advances its anti-Western narrative, seeking to forge a “new world order,” other BRICS members, particularly India, are intent on maintaining healthy political and economic relations with the West. In Kazan, Vladimir Putin’s challenge will be to navigate these differences skillfully and project an image of unity, reassuring both the Russian populace and the international community that Russia is far from isolated.
