Many observers believe that the new offensive in northern Gaza, coupled with a tightening siege, follows a calculated plan aimed at clearing out the remaining civilian population.
Hospitals have been shelled, shelters set on fire, and families are being torn apart as men and boys are taken away in military vehicles. Civilians, who are still holding on through the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, describe the current situation as worse than ever. Approximately 400,000 people have stayed in Gaza City and surrounding areas after Israel cut off access to other parts of the territory and issued evacuation orders. Some refuse to leave their homes, fearing they won’t be able to return, while others remain to care for elderly or disabled family members. Reports indicate that the routes to relative safety in the south are perilous due to sniper fire and detentions by Israeli forces.
Currently, many believe that Israel is intensifying its military operations in a bid to “finish the job.” Since the new aerial and ground offensive launched on October 6, at least 800 people have lost their lives. A tightening of the siege and the halting of aid are viewed as efforts to coerce the remaining population into fleeing. This approach is detailed in a proposal informally referred to as “the generals’ plan,” which was presented to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet last month. Experts have remarked that such tactics may constitute war crimes.
First responders have completely halted their operations in northern Gaza after crews suffered injuries from airstrikes or were detained by the military. The last functioning fire engine was destroyed by tank shelling. The few hospitals still operating in the region report dire shortages of medical supplies, forcing them to make impossible choices about which patients to treat. A near-total blockade on aid deliveries has led to critical shortages of food and water.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres recently remarked on social media that the people enduring the ongoing Israeli siege in northern Gaza are rapidly depleting their means of survival.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and the Israeli government reject claims of orchestrating a “surrender or starve” strategy. They argue that the new military offensive is essential to prevent Hamas fighters from regrouping. Nevertheless, the so-called generals’ plan, created by a group of retired military leaders, presents a clear framework for the current military strategy.
Sawsan Zaher, a Palestinian human rights lawyer based in Haifa, emphasized that regardless of how Israel frames its actions, what matters under international law is the reality on the ground. “We can clearly see that Israel is attempting to erase the Palestinian presence in northern Gaza,” she stated.
The generals’ plan aims to avoid a prolonged conflict by applying maximum pressure on Hamas, compelling the group to surrender and facilitating the return of 100 hostages taken on October 7, 2023, who remain captive.
The plan suggests issuing an ultimatum for Palestinians in northern Gaza to leave, after which the area would be designated a closed military zone. Those who remain would be classified as combatants and, therefore, legitimate targets. Essential supplies such as water, food, fuel, and medical resources would be entirely cut off.
Post-surrender, the Gaza Strip would be divided, with Israel maintaining indefinite control over the north until a new Palestinian civilian administration can be established. Human rights groups have condemned this strategy, arguing that it contravenes international laws that prohibit using food as a weapon or forcing population transfers. The question of whether Israel is intentionally restricting food supply is central to the genocide allegations against it in the International Court of Justice. Israeli officials contend that humanitarian organizations are responsible for delivery delays and that Hamas is misappropriating aid.
With attempts at a ceasefire and hostage negotiations stalled since July and tensions growing with Hezbollah in Lebanon, observers say Israel might be shifting its strategy in Gaza.
Diana Buttu, a lawyer and former Palestinian peace negotiator, commented, “The spotlight isn’t on Gaza anymore, even though the Israeli government is quite clear about its intentions. The reality is straightforward: they can do as they please because no one is stopping them. The US, the UN, the EU – who is going to intervene?”
Despite anticipated revival of ceasefire discussions next week, Israel appears to be leaning toward a brief 12-day truce. Senior Israeli defense officials recently indicated to Haaretz that the government’s broader goal may now involve annexing significant portions of Palestinian territory.
While the generals’ plan, or a variant of it, could facilitate this aim, Gen. Giora Eiland, the plan’s main architect, has expressed opposition to the resettlement of Gaza. He acknowledged that while siege can be a legitimate tactic under international humanitarian law, the plan should be seen as a last resort if diplomatic avenues fail to resolve the conflict.
“The successful hostage deal we achieved in November came about precisely because there were two trucks of aid going into Gaza each day, and Hamas was under pressure,” he explained. “The notion that there’s a clean way to fight without civilian casualties in modern warfare is naive… A lot more Palestinians and Israelis will die if this conflict isn’t wrapped up soon.”
Michael Milstein, a Hamas expert and head of the Palestinian Studies Forum at Tel Aviv University, argued that the generals’ plan is unlikely to achieve Israel’s dual military objectives of defeating Hamas and recovering the hostages.
“After a year of conflict, even with [Yahya] Sinwar gone, we’ve learned that occupying the entire Strip won’t stop Hamas from fighting,” he stated, in reference to the recent killing of the group’s leader in Rafah.
“We have no good options in Gaza, but I’m concerned this approach could do even more harm to Israel’s reputation. Many in Israel still fail to grasp that the global community does not view the events unfolding in northern Gaza as a just war, and that, in itself, is a significant strategic issue.”
